CollegeFootballWinning.com is a company that makes betting recommendations primarily based on algorithms. In making such recommendations, we analyze both football performance statistics and college football betting data. While betting on “Totals” in college football is not quite as popular as betting on sides (point spreads), the savvy Totals bettor can profit at least as much. There were 57 college football games involving FBS teams in Week 6. This article is a partial summary some of the betting data from those Totals results. In considering the percentages noted in this article, it is important to understand that profitability in college football wagering is winning at greater than 52.38%. (The average sportsbook requires a bet of $110 to win $100.) As a consequence, any percentage above 52.38% is winning, while anything below 52.38% is losing for the sports bettor’s college football picks.
Week 6 Over/Unders (Totals)
Every year, the college football betting public reaffirms its love for betting “Overs.” Although we can speculate on the reasons for that perennial position, the fact is, in the 10 prior years to this 2014 season (from 2004-2013), the public bet the Over in 86.2% of all the posted Totals for college football. Given that more college football teams employ up-tempo and no-huddle offenses, betting that the combined score will exceed the Total might seem even more enticing than in previous years. Week 6 of this season, the Over was 23-33-1, meaning the Over was right just 41.07% of the time (excluding the push).
The average college football betting Total from 2004-2013 was 53.33 points. The 2013-2014 seasons witnessed that average going up to 56.77 points. For Week 6 of this season, the average betting Total was 57.91 points; that constitutes a leap of more than a full point from just last week. Always considering betting data from different angles, we like to examine some extremes. For example, when this week’s Total closed at less than 50 points (a very low Total), the Over went 2-6, meaning it was the right side just 25% of the time. At the other extreme, when the Total was at least 65 points, the Over was right four out of eight times, exactly 50%.
How the Public Bet Totals in Week 6
Betting markets are “live,” and therefore, subject to change based on betting behavior. Studying public betting can be revealing. A long-standing general sports-betting maxim is bettors should “fade the public,” meaning they should bet against what the public does. Already stated, historically, the public loves Overs. The public proved that love once again in Week 6. The majority bet the Over in 53 out of 57 games! That is 92.98%! Once again, however, we examined the extremes as well. We looked to the Overs that had at least 70% of the majority on their side. Those Totals were 9-12, meaning the public was right just 42.86% of the time in those contests. We examined the opposite extreme as well: There were four games where the Under had the majority of the public betting. In those games, the Under (the majority side) was correct all four times (100%).
The Week 6 Final Analysis for Betting Totals
It is quite interesting to note that bookmakers raised the average Total by more than a full point from last week to this week, WHILE the Under was correct 58.93% of the time. Despite that massive weekly increase for the average posted college football betting Total, those who bet the Over were not dissuaded in the least. We will be paying close attention to what bookmakers do with Totals in the coming weeks: Do they continue to raise them, knowing that bettors will still bet the Over? Will the Under still be the right side with such profitable consistency? Our subsequent articles will certainly answer those questions.
Get all previous betting data and latest season 2014 NCAA football picks week 6 totals betting analysis data via collegefootballwinning.com
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