Bo Pelini’s Ousting from Nebraska

03 Monday Aug 2015

Posted by in Bo Pelini’s Ousting from Nebraska

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

A number of months ago, we wrote about how unfair it was to fire Bo Pelini from Nebraska after seven seasons of winning 72.34% of his games (straight-up). Since our previous article, we have done a great deal of assessing coaches using our favorite sports-betting assessment tool, margin of victory (MOV) against-the-spread (ATS). Judging a coach’s performance by the number of points by which his team beats the spread is the best single metric for gauging whether that coach exceeds, meets, or fails to meet public expectations. Although we still believe Nebraska will live to see the day when they wish they could have a coach who won nine games (minimum) each season, using MOV ATS, we can piece together the quantitative rationale for Bo Pelini’s ousting.

2008

In Bo Pelini’s first year as the head coach of the Cornhuskers, his MOV ATS was 1.65, meaning that he beat the spread by an average of 1.65 points per game. That is an excellent figure in its own right, and that included beating the spread versus Kansas State by 22 and Clemson by 6 points. All was well in Lincoln.

2009

Bo Pelini’s second year at Nebraska was tremendous. His MOV ATS was a whopping 5.32, and MOV ATS victories included Oklahoma by 11.5, Texas by 13, and Arizona by 31! Big Red Nation was loving the Pelini hire.

2010

Pelini’s third season was the year after high expectations were established. Those lofty expectations exceeded Nebraska’s on-field performance. Coach Pelini’s MOV ATS was -2.14. The “lowlights” included negative MOV ATS against Texas (-16.5) and an embarrassing 23.5-point margin of loss to Washington in the Holiday Bowl- a team Nebraska crushed earlier in the season. The dew was off the lily in Lincoln.

2011

This was the season that Nebraska joined the Big Ten, and it was awful. Pelini’s Huskers had a MOV ATS of -6.19. That meant that the Cornhuskers failed to cover the spread by an AVERAGE of more than two field goals PER GAME! What compounded the damage was the embarrassing loss to South Carolina (the MOV ATS was -14.5) in the Capital One Bowl- the second straight Bowl Season embarrassment for Pelini. What a coach cannot do is embarrass Nebraska on a national stage. For that to happen two years in a row was unacceptable to the Husker faithful.

2012

Nebraska hired a new athletic director in October of that year, and that new A.D. must have heard very little good about Bo Pelini (given Pelini’s most recent two seasons). The first game that new A.D. saw was a 22.5-point ATS margin of loss to Ohio State. That certainly did not help ingratiate Pelini to his new boss. The coach did not help himself by achieving a MOV ATS of -3.3 on the season. The A.D. was too new to get rid of Pelini that year, but three years of failing to meet expectations meant that, unless there was a radical reversal in 2013, Pelini’s fate was essentially sealed.

2013

Although it was not horrific, Pelini’s MOV ATS certainly was not the radical reversal needed to save his job. Pelini and Nebraska went -0.54 on their MOV ATS. Four consecutive years of underachievement in the eyes of the public meant that Pelini was all but fired. The A.D. must have been making arrangements for Coach Pelini’s replacement. The only thing in doubt was when to fire the man.

2014

Coach Pelini would not make it to his team’s Bowl game, despite going 9-3 straight-up. His MOV ATS was 1.17 on the year- Pelini’s first positive number since 2009- but it was literally too little and too late.

Conclusion

Bo Pelini’s overall MOV ATS at Nebraska was -0.61. That negative number means that, in the final analysis, Coach Pelini failed to meet public expectations. While that number might seem relatively negligible, in the eyes of the Husker faithful, the final five seasons saw Pelini with a MOV ATS of -2.28 points per game. That figure, at a high profile football school like Nebraska, would get any coach fired.

©CollegeFootballWinning.com

College Football Picks Week 9, 2014

27 Monday Oct 2014

Posted by in College Football Picks Week 9 2014

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

College Football Picks Week 9 2014

CollegeFootballWinning.com is a company completely focused on college football betting analysis. The results of those analyses are betting recommendations derived by algorithms. This article is a partial summary of that betting data from Week 9 of the 2014 college football season. There were 49 FBS games in Week 9. All the betting percentages discussed in this article are based on the standard sportsbook requirement of having to bet $110 for every $100 in preferred winnings. Thus, profiting from that type of wagering means the winning rate must exceed 52.38%. Any betting percentage below 52.38% is unprofitable.

Week 9’s Underdogs and Favorites

In Week 9, favorites and underdogs both beat the spread exactly 50% of the time. (There was one “pick ‘em” game where there was no favorite.) Big favorites (those favored by at least 21 points) beat the spread exactly 50% of the time as well (out of six games). Small favorites (those favored by seven points or less) went 9-7 against-the-spread, meaning they won at the rate of 56.25%.

Week 9’s Public Betting Summary

Bookmakers set the betting line for each game, but once the line is set and posted, it is subject to change based (in part) on how the public bets. Therefore, research into public betting behavior can be a worthwhile study. Many sports betting advisors recommend betting against how the public bets. Should that be done in college football picks betting? The data for Week 9 shows the side with the betting majority went 24-23 (with two games receiving an even 50% on both sides). While the majority side won more games, the winning percentage only works out to be 51.06- an unprofitable mark. Rather than come to conclusions based on simple majorities alone, we looked at some other majority figures: Teams that had at least 60% of the public betting on their side came out of Week 9 with a 17-16 record. That amounts to a 51.52% mark- again, unprofitable. Considering teams that had at least 70% of the public betting on their side reveals a record of 7-10, which amounts to the unprofitable winning percentage of 41.18.

Week 9’s Final Betting Analysis

Using generalizations like bet on underdogs or bet against the public would not have proved terribly effective in Week 9. As with the data from any single week, it is important to remember that one week is not a significant sample size for coming to long-term conclusions. Our measure important trends one season at a time. It is recommended that the reader do the same.

See Online NCAA Football picks @ Collegefootballwinning dot com

NCAA & college football picks week 6 totals betting analysis 2014

09 Thursday Oct 2014

Posted by in college football picks week 6 totals

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

college football winning LogoCollegeFootballWinning.com is a company that makes betting recommendations primarily based on algorithms. In making such recommendations, we analyze both football performance statistics and college football betting data. While betting on “Totals” in college football is not quite as popular as betting on sides (point spreads), the savvy Totals bettor can profit at least as much. There were 57 college football games involving FBS teams in Week 6. This article is a partial summary some of the betting data from those Totals results. In considering the percentages noted in this article, it is important to understand that profitability in college football wagering is winning at greater than 52.38%. (The average sportsbook requires a bet of $110 to win $100.) As a consequence, any percentage above 52.38% is winning, while anything below 52.38% is losing for the sports bettor’s college football picks.

Week 6 Over/Unders (Totals)
Every year, the college football betting public reaffirms its love for betting “Overs.” Although we can speculate on the reasons for that perennial position, the fact is, in the 10 prior years to this 2014 season (from 2004-2013), the public bet the Over in 86.2% of all the posted Totals for college football. Given that more college football teams employ up-tempo and no-huddle offenses, betting that the combined score will exceed the Total might seem even more enticing than in previous years. Week 6 of this season, the Over was 23-33-1, meaning the Over was right just 41.07% of the time (excluding the push).

The average college football betting Total from 2004-2013 was 53.33 points. The 2013-2014 seasons witnessed that average going up to 56.77 points. For Week 6 of this season, the average betting Total was 57.91 points; that constitutes a leap of more than a full point from just last week. Always considering betting data from different angles, we like to examine some extremes. For example, when this week’s Total closed at less than 50 points (a very low Total), the Over went 2-6, meaning it was the right side just 25% of the time. At the other extreme, when the Total was at least 65 points, the Over was right four out of eight times, exactly 50%.

How the Public Bet Totals in Week 6
Betting markets are “live,” and therefore, subject to change based on betting behavior. Studying public betting can be revealing. A long-standing general sports-betting maxim is bettors should “fade the public,” meaning they should bet against what the public does. Already stated, historically, the public loves Overs. The public proved that love once again in Week 6. The majority bet the Over in 53 out of 57 games! That is 92.98%! Once again, however, we examined the extremes as well. We looked to the Overs that had at least 70% of the majority on their side. Those Totals were 9-12, meaning the public was right just 42.86% of the time in those contests. We examined the opposite extreme as well: There were four games where the Under had the majority of the public betting. In those games, the Under (the majority side) was correct all four times (100%).

The Week 6 Final Analysis for Betting Totals
It is quite interesting to note that bookmakers raised the average Total by more than a full point from last week to this week, WHILE the Under was correct 58.93% of the time. Despite that massive weekly increase for the average posted college football betting Total, those who bet the Over were not dissuaded in the least. We will be paying close attention to what bookmakers do with Totals in the coming weeks: Do they continue to raise them, knowing that bettors will still bet the Over? Will the Under still be the right side with such profitable consistency? Our subsequent articles will certainly answer those questions. 

Get all previous betting data and latest season 2014 NCAA football picks week 6 totals betting analysis data via collegefootballwinning.com